Address
Hambleden House
19-26 Pembroke Street Lower
Dublin 2
D02 WV96
Ireland
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Phone: +353 (1) 6477900
Fax: +353 (1) 6477901
Email: info@bannon.ie
As per the Retail Sales figures released by the CSO and our own experience across our retail park portfolio DIY & Household goods sales have been the stand out performer of the Retail sector since March.
Retail Parks continue to perform well with rolling restrictions on other retail outlets redirecting spend into home improvements.
Interestingly this is a sector with very low levels on pure online penetration although we have been actively engaging with a number of occupiers about facilitating their client and collect offer.
Lucy Connolly – Divisional Director – “The anticipated impact of covid-19 on the Dublin office market translated to a take up figure of 75,000 sq.ft. this quarter. We do expect to see a busier Q3 with over 700,000 sq.ft. of accommodation reserved, with some large transactions close to completing in the coming weeks. We commenced the quarter on a positive note with the recent announcement that Gilead are to create 140 new jobs following their letting of over 30,000 sq.ft. at North Dock”.
With 3 transactions in excess of 100,000 sq. ft. take-up reached an impressive 1.2m sq. ft. in Q4. This brings the year-end total to 3.29m sq. ft. across 204 transactions. Full report to follow.
The strongest ever quarter for the Irish investment Market with total turnover for Q4 2019 reaching a staggering €3.76bn and total turnover for the 12 months of the year in excess of €7bn. To put the quarter in context it is higher than the entire annual turnover of the last cycle peak in 2006 of €3bn+ and annualised smashes this cycles 2016 peak of €4.5bn. PRS remained the most active sector accounting for 41% of transaction value. Full Report to follow.
The Irish economy looks set to register strong growth again in 2019 with GDP likely to increase by almost 6 per cent in the current year. While certain multi-national related transactions are distorting the headline figures, the large increase in taxation receipts and the continued strong performance of the Irish labour market means the underlying economy is performing well.
The persistent growth of the Irish economy is remarkable given the strong headwinds observed in 2019, the uncertainty about the Brexit process, and the moderation observed in global conditions, all of which are likely to have had a negative impact on the domestic economy. The Brexit process has merely been parked, with the possibility of a free trade agreement being negotiated between the UK and the EU in 2020. This will almost certainly result in further uncertainty in the years ahead. We expect to see the economy grow by a slower rate in 2020 of 3.3 per cent.
Another potential challenge for the Irish economy is the issue of corporation tax receipts, which are becoming an increasingly large share of the total tax receipts of the Irish exchequer. They now account for over 18 per cent of total tax receipts and there is concern that a portion of these receipts may be windfall revenues, which are not sustainable. ESRI economist Petros Varthalitis examines the implications for key fiscal metrics if there was a sudden reduction in the amount of corporation tax receipts available. It would likely require significant measures to be adopted by the Government in order to maintain fiscal discipline. The results underpin the need to quantify the potential windfall component of these receipts. They are also important given the recent proposals by the OECD for corporation tax policy.
The Commentary also examines the regional diversity of the Irish property market performance over the last 10 years. ESRI economists Matthew Allen-Coghlan and Kieran McQuinn note that both prices and rents have grown at significantly different rates in different areas of the country during this period. Areas of the country that had relatively high prices and rents initially experienced the fastest pace of growth subsequently. This suggests that different regions of the country have experienced varying economic growth rates over the past 10 years.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November 2019 was 4.8%, remaining unchanged from October 2019 and down from 5.6% in November 2018. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 117,800 in November 2019, compared to 117,700 in October 2019. When compared to November 2018, there was an annual decrease of 17,600 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed.
Summary points for November
The volume of retail sales decreased 0.5% in October when compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis and increased by 3.0% on an annual basis. When Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales decreased by 2.1% in October 2019 and rose by 3.2% when compared with October 2018.
The sectors with the largest month on month volume decreases were Other Retail Sales (-9.3%) and Fuel (-5.2%). The sectors with the largest monthly volume increases were Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles (8.1%) and Clothing, Footwear & Textiles (3.0%).
There was a decrease of 1.0% in the value of retail sales in October 2019 when compared with September 2019 and there was an annual increase of 1.4% when compared with October 2018. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 2.4% in the value of retail sales in the month and an increase of 0.5% in the annual figure.
There was an annual increase in employment of 2.4% or 53,700 in the year to the third quarter of 2019, bringing total employment to 2,326,900. This compares with an annual increase of 2.0% or 45,000 in employment in the previous quarter and an increase of 3.0% or 66,700 in the year to Q3 2018.
Hambleden House
19-26 Pembroke Street Lower
Dublin 2
D02 WV96
Ireland
»Map
Phone: +353 (1) 6477900
Fax: +353 (1) 6477901
Email: info@bannon.ie