There was an annual increase in employment of 2.4% or 53,700 in the year to the third quarter of 2019, bringing total employment to 2,326,900. This compares with an annual increase of 2.0% or 45,000 in employment in the previous quarter and an increase of 3.0% or 66,700 in the year to Q3 2018.
Residential property prices increased by 1.1% nationally in the year to September. This compares with an increase of 2.0% in the year to August and an increase of 8.5% in the twelve months to September 2018.
In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 1.3% in the year to September – house prices decreased by 1.5% and apartments decreased by 0.2%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in Fingal at 1.5%, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw a decline of 6.8%.
Residential property prices in Ireland excluding Dublin were 3.6% higher in the year to September, with house prices up by 3.4% and apartments by 4.8%. The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in house prices was the Border at 11.8%, while the smallest rise was recorded in the Mid-East at 0.2%.
Overall Decline
Overall, the national index is 16.9% lower than its highest level in 2007. Dublin residential property prices are 21.4% lower than their February 2007 peak, while residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 20.0% lower than their May 2007 peak.
Recovery
Property prices nationally have increased by 85.3% from their trough in early 2013. Dublin residential property prices have risen 94.7% from their February 2012 low, whilst residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 84.0% higher than at the trough, which was in May 2013.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2019 was 4.8%, down from 4.9% in September 2019 and down from 5.7% in October 2018. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 117,300 in October 2019, compared to 118,100 in September 2019. When compared to October 2018, there was an annual decrease of 19,400 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed.
Summary points for October
Brexit and the recent wet weather failed to dampen consumer confidence here over the last few weeks as grocery sales grew by 3.3% in the 12 weeks to October 6.
New figures from Kantar show that Dunnes has now been the country’s biggest retailer for a full year as it increased its market share of the supermarket sector to 22.5%, up from 22.1% the same time last year.
Kantar said Dunnes’ continued success, evidenced by 5.5% sales growth in the past 12 weeks, has largely been driven by its Shop & Save voucher campaign.
Meanwhile, SuperValu passed Tesco to take the number two spot for the first time since December 2018.
Kantar said that SuperValu has enjoyed larger basket sizes and growth in some of its core categories in the latest 12 week period.
Charlotte Scott, consumer insight director at Kantar, noted that both Dunnes and SuperValu have benefited from an out of season boom in sales of cleaning products.
“Shoppers have been indulging in a spot of seasonal autumn cleaning, perhaps thanks to the popularity of internet sensation Mrs Hinch and being kept indoors by the recent wet weather,” Ms Scott said.
She said people have spent an additional €7.2m on household cleaning in the past 12 weeks, which is up 5.9% on last year and driven by Ireland’s two largest retailers.
Meanwhile, despite falling behind SuperValu in the retailer rankings, Tesco enjoyed a return to growth this period, with shoppers making an extra trip compared to last year.
Kantar noted that confectionery has been a key category for Tesco, and is growing at an impressive 31.1% rate.
Charlotte Scott said that Tesco’s promotion on tubs of sweets, pricing them at €3.99, has proved particularly popular and it has even had to put quotas in place to limit shoppers to a maximum of four per person.
And Aldi reached a new record market share at 12.6% in the latest 12 week period under review. It saw an additional 21,000 shoppers through its doors, with a particular push to target young families.
Meanwhile, Lidl’s performance at a total level has also improved, with sales up 4.9% and its market share increasing to 11.9%.
Kantar noted that while Lidl’s existing shoppers are visiting more often, and spending more when they do, penetration has dropped slightly by 0.4%.
Ibec, the group that represents Irish business, today published its new Q3 Quarterly Economic Outlook, which forecasts GDP growth of 4% in 2019. The Outlook says we are now at the top of the global business cycle, with Irish households clearly benefitting from strong growth. This growth dividend has increased real, after-tax household income in the economy by one-quarter in just five years. Rising incomes are underpinned by exceptional levels of business investment and related employment effects.
For 2020, Ibec forecasts that growth will moderate to 2.7% as both the Irish and global economies reach a mature stage of the business cycle. Our forecasts assume a deal on Brexit is reached. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we expect significant impacts from continued depreciation in the value of sterling, cancelled investment, falling consumer confidence, rising costs and significant trade disruption. The economy may still grow, but growth would more than halve in 2020 and employment growth could fall below 0.5%. Ibec has called for October’s budget to include new and far-reaching state aid supports to assist vulnerable companies.
Commenting on the report, Ibec Chief Economist, Gerard Brady, said: “Every indicator of the Irish economy tells the same story. The economy is continuing to grow rapidly through a period of great uncertainty. This growth is also clearly benefitting households. The economy is now close to full employment, with moderate inflation and the strongest increases in real living standards since the late 1990s. This growth dividend has increased real, after-tax, household income in the economy by one-quarter in just five years. This has been matched by no other economy in the developed world.
“However, the story is not all positive. 2018 was the first year where the value of Irish indigenous exports fell since 2011. This trend has been reversed in the early months of 2019 driven by continued increases in production in both the alcohol and dairy sectors. Both sectors will face challenges over the coming year due to US tariffs and Brexit. Ibec analysis has shown that Irish goods are the most exposed, on a per capita basis, to the proposed US tariffs on EU goods. Irish exports worth €818 million could be hit by new tariffs.
“Even in the event of a Brexit breakthrough, there are reasons to believe that growth will slow over the coming years. The global trading environment is becoming more difficult for small open economies due to rising trade tensions. The global economy is also close to the top of the business cycle. These factors are now cutting through to the real economy in Europe. BusinessEurope analysis shows that that our fellow business associations in twenty-four of the twenty-seven other EU member states expect a slowdown in growth in 2020 relative to 2019.”
Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland 2017, a thematic publication exploring the impact of FDI and globalisation, shows over 300,000 jobs are directly linked to foreign investment into Ireland.
Despite a decrease of €54bn in the stock of Foreign Direct Investment into Ireland between 2016 and 2017, at €744bn (253% of GDP) investment still remains high in comparison to other EU countries showing the highly globalised nature of the Irish economy.
Employment figures show growth across all sectors since 2012, with the largest growth (28%) recorded in the scientific and technical activities sector. In 2017 average wages in foreign-owned multinational enterprises (MNEs), at €50,000, were significantly higher than those paid by domestic firms (€33,000), but lower than those paid by Irish MNEs (€57,000). All sectors experienced wage growth, with the largest growth in the information and communications sector and the administration and support services sector, which experienced 26% growth and 20% growth respectively between 2012-2017.
This is the second time the CSO has published this experimental publication linking data across statistical domains. Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland 2017 looks at the role of investment into Ireland, its associated globalisation and its role in the Irish domestic economy. This publication brings together several different data sources designed to complement the annual and quarterly Foreign Direct Investment statistics presented in our International Accounts.
New to this year’s publication is a breakdown of gender balance in FDI firms and an analysis of the influence of Special Purpose Entities (SPEs), distinguishing between actual investment in firms operating in Ireland and funds passing through via SPEs.
There was an annual increase in employment of 3.7% or 81,200 in the year to the first quarter of 2019, bringing total employment to 2,301,900. This compares with an annual increase of 2.3% or 50,500 in employment in the previous quarter and an increase of 2.9% or 62,400 in the year to Q1 2018.
Summary points for Q1 2019
The increase in total employment of 81,200 in the year to Q1 2019 was represented by an increase in full-time employment of 62,600 (+3.5%) and an increase in part-time employment of 18,600 (+4.1%).
On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 35,200 (+1.5%) over the previous quarter. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 18,400 (+0.8%) in Q4 2018, an increase of 10,900 (+0.5%) in Q3 2018, an increase of 15,400 (+0.7%) in Q2 2018 and an increase of 7,400 (+0.3%) in Q1 2018.
Unemployment decreased by 18,600 (-14.0%) in the year to Q1 2019 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 114,400. This is the twenty seventh quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 5.6% in Q4 2018 to 5.0% in Q1 2019, while the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed decreased by 14,300 to 120,300.
The long-term unemployment rate decreased from 2.1% to 1.7% over the year to Q1 2019. Long-term unemployment accounted for 35.7% of total unemployment in Q1 2019.
The total number of persons in the labour force in the first quarter of 2019 was 2,416,300, representing an increase of 62,600 (+2.7%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force increase of 31,900 (+1.4%) in Q1 2018. The number of persons not in the labour force in Q1 2019 was 1,480,200, an increase of 9,900 (+0.7%) over the year.
Employment
The annual increase of 81,200 (+3.7%) in employment was represented by an increase of 30,800 (+2.5%) in male employment and an increase of 50,400 (+5.0%) in female employment over the year.
Employment increased in 12 of the 14 economic sectors over the year (excluding Not stated). The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Transportation and storage (+11.4% or +10,800) and the Administrative and support service activities (+10.6% or 10,500) sectors.
The overall employment rate among persons aged 15-64 was 69.3% in Q1 2019 compared to 67.9% in Q1 2018.
The number of employees in Q1 2019 was 1,966,800, up 99,300 (+5.3%) over the year. The number of self-employed persons decreased by 14,500 (-4.3%) over the year to 323,900.
Unemployment
Male unemployment decreased by 7,800 (-10.6%) to 65,900 over the year to Q1 2019, while female unemployment decreased by 10,700 (-18.1%) to 48,400 over the same period.
The overall unadjusted unemployment rate decreased from 5.7% to 4.8% over the year to Q1 2019.
In the year to Q1 2019, the number of persons classified as long-term unemployed decreased by 9,300 (-18.5%), bringing total long-term unemployment to 40,900. Short-term unemployment decreased by 9,500 (-11.9%) over the year to 70,300.
The unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds (youth unemployment rate) decreased from 12.5% to 10.9% over the year to Q1 2019.
A series of Monthly Unemployment statistics was first issued by the CSO in 2015. The most recent publication was issued in May 2019 for reference month April 2019. The Monthly Unemployment release contains a series of monthly unemployment rates and volumes. These series are based primarily on the LFS and are compiled in accordance with agreed international practice. Data for more recent periods for which no LFS benchmark is available is adjusted for trends in the Live Register. These statistics are the definitive measure of Monthly Unemployment and replaced the SUR (which has been discontinued).
The previously published seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment figures are now revised with the availability of new LFS benchmark unemployment estimates for Q1 2019. The seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate for March 2019 is now revised from 5.4% to 4.7%, while the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed is revised from 131,400 to 114,400.
The provisional estimate for April 2019 has also been revised with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April 2019 revised from 5.4% to 4.6%, while the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed is revised from 129,700 to 112,500.
Labour force
As with employment, the number of persons in the labour force is also influenced by changes in the size of the working age population (demographic effect). Up to the start of 2008 this demographic effect had been adding at least 30,000 to the labour force on an annual basis, primarily driven by net inward migration. This demographic effect peaked at over 90,500 in the second quarter of 2007.
With the decline in inward migration the positive demographic effect started to fall in the second half of 2007 and continued to decline throughout 2008 and 2009 before becoming negative in Q3 2009. The negative demographic effect continued for each quarter until Q1 2014. The demographic effect has been positive since Q2 2014 and in Q1 2019 a positive demographic effect contributed an increase of 36,000 to the overall change in the labour force.
In addition to the demographic effect, the change in the size of the labour force is influenced by changes in participation. While the overall participation rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 62.0% over the year, the net result of changes in individual age groups for the same period was a positive participation effect of 26,600.
Of those persons not in the labour force, the number classified as being in the potential additional labour force was 108,200 in the first quarter of 2019.
International Comparisons
The employment rate in Ireland increased by 0.8 percentage points to 69.1% over the year to Q4 2018. The employment rate in the EU-28 in Q4 2018 was 68.9%.
The unadjusted unemployment rate among the EU-28 countries in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 6.6%, while the comparable rate in Ireland was 5.4%. The highest unemployment rates among the EU-28 countries in Q4 2018 were recorded in Greece and Spain (18.7% and 14.5% respectively), while the lowest rates of 2.0% and 3.2% were recorded in the Czech Republic and Germany respectively.
The latest figures available at the time of finalising this release indicate that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the EU-28 for March 2019 was 6.4% compared to the revised seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate of 4.7% for Ireland for the same period.
Construction activity rose sharply in April while purchasing inventory also ratcheted up as companies seek to avoid Brexit-related supply disruptions, according to a survey from Ulster Bank.
The bank’s construction purchasing managers index (PMI) showed that business levels continue to rise underpinned by ongoing increases in the demand for construction work.
But Brexit still weighed on confidence and some companies surveyed noted lower demand while others said they would brought forward purchases to mitigate potential supply issues.
“Nevertheless, the April PMI indicate that construction remains the fast growing major sector of the economy, with growth continuing to outpace that reported in both manufacturing and services where international risks and headwinds, including those linked to Brexit, represent more of a challenge,” said Simon Barry, Ulster Bank’s chief economist in the Republic.
Housing, as opposed to commercial or civil engineering activity, recorded the fastest rise in activity for the fourth successive month during April. Commercial activity also increased, though at the slowest pace in six months while civil engineering activity declined.
Extra staff
Meanwhile, while job creation was quicker than the series average, employment growth eased slightly during April despite the fast rise in new business. “Anecdotal evidence from panellists indicated that extra staff had been hired in order to keep up with customer demand,” the survey said.
On pricing, the rate of input cost inflation slowed to a four-month low although there were reports of greater prices paid for steel, insulation and transport while left cost burdens high.
Overall, Irish construction companies picked up from a 68-month low during April, with just over 40% of those surveyed expecting activity to increase over the coming year. The relative positivity was linked to forecasts of increased sales activity, new capital investments and subsidence of Brexit uncertainty over the next 12 months.
The PMI rose to 56.6 in April, up from 55.9 in March.
The data from business and credit risk analyst, CRIF Vision-net, show an average of almost 71 new companies were formed every day in the first quarter of 2019, while the number of insolvencies remained consistent for the same period.
In total, 6,413 new companies were formed in Ireland in the first quarter of 2019, the best Q1 figures in the past 13 years, up almost 14% on the previously record-breaking Q1, 2018.
Professional services was the biggest contributor to new start-ups in the quarter which saw 1,448 new start-ups representing a 22% increase on this time last year.
Social and personal services grew by 50% with 945 new companies, while the third largest sector was financial services which, however, fell by 1% to 708 new start-up companies (compared to 715 in Q1 2018).
Construction saw a modest 1% growth during this time.
In total, 12 counties recorded double-digit growth in start-ups in Quarter One with Dublin recording the highest number, 3,089, amounting to almost 50% of the total number of start-ups established.
Cork followed with 690 new companies in the first quarter, up 13.3%, with Galway coming in third with 236 new start-ups, down by just 1.2% on the first quarter of 2018. Limerick saw 210 new start-ups created, representing a 7.7% increase on the same period last year.
The growth in company start-ups wasn’t limited to the counties with the largest urban populations. Louth (up 21%), Donegal (up 16.5%), Kerry (up 7%), Wicklow (up 14%) and Wexford (up 38%) all saw significant increases in new company start-ups.
2018 saw an almost 26% year-on-year drop in insolvencies when compared to 2017 and in the first quarter of this year, insolvencies have remained relatively low at 192, equating to an average of two a day.
It compares to a total of 186 in the same period for 2018.
Wholesale and retail was the most insolvent sector in the first three months of 2019 with 31 recorded insolvencies, up 34.8% on the Q1 figures for 2018. It was equalled by professional services also with 31 recorded insolvencies, up 10.7% on the first quarter of 2018 and was followed by the construction sector with 25 recorded insolvencies, down by 13.8% on Q1 2018.
Dublin was the most insolvent county for the period (84, up 9%), followed by Galway (14, up 133%) and Cork (13, down 43.5%).
However, counties Clare, Carlow, Mayo, Westmeath, Waterford, Kilkenny, Tipperary and Laois all recorded fewer than five insolvencies in the first quarter of this year and the number of insolvencies in counties Sligo and Offaly went down by 100% when compared to the same period in 2018.
The upgrade of the Luas Green line to a metro service will not be needed “for 20 years or so” the National Transport Authority (NTA) has said.
The NTA has today confirmed the MetroLink line, which had been due to run from Swords to Sandyford, will terminate at Charlemont north of Ranelagh, where it meets the Luas Green line.
Last March, the NTA announced plans for the line which would connect Dublin Airport to the city by rail, with the construction of new track from Swords to Charlemont, and an upgrade of the Luas Green line between Charlemont and Sandyford.
Minister for Transport Shane Ross last month said he would “not countenance” significant disruption to the Luas line and any plan which “requires an unacceptable level of shutdowns” to the Luas service would “not be tolerated”.
The NTA said it will tunnel past the Charlemont stop to allow the conversion of the Luas to metro “to occur at an appropriate point in the future” but the upgrade would not be required “for some time – perhaps twenty years or so”.
The new route will also see a station construction site in Glasnevin moved from lands owned by Na Fianna GAA club on St Mobhi Road to an adjacent training pitch belonging to Home Farm Football Club, following complaints by the GAA which were backed by Mr Varadkar. A tunnel boring machine, due to enter the ground at this site, will be moved to Ballymun.
The NTA today said the Home Farm station would be “more compact” than previously planned which would reduce the construction time from seven years to three years. There will be “no impact” on the Na Fianna pitches it said.
The revised route will also see reduced disruption to traffic in the city centre, the NTA said. The proposed station at St Stephen’s Green East will be moved slightly south and west to avoid the closure of Hume Street during construction However, St Stephen’s Green park itself “will be impacted to a small extent as a result”.
At O’Connell Street the proposed station will be moved to underneath the old Carlton cinema and the vacant plot beside it, where a shopping centre is planned stretching from O’Connell Street to Moore Street. The previous station location in the middle of the street, “would have presented a significant challenge to Luas services, bus services, and vehicular traffic on O’Connell Street” the NTA said.
However, the NTA still plans to go ahead with plans to demolish the College Gate apartment block and Markievicz leisure centre on Townsend Street to facilitate an underground station at Tara Street.
It said it did investigate alternatives, including locating the station under the Hawkins House development site, but “reluctantly concluded” demolishing the block of 70 apartments and the swimming pool, remained “the most feasible option”. It has however, reversed plans to demolish the smaller Court apartment building at Dalcassian Downs in Glasnevin.
The new route will be available for public consultation from today. The NTA expects to make an application to An Bord Pleanála for MetroLink next year, with construction expected to take six to seven years.
